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Saturday, February 25, 2017

Ministers Are Split, Even The "Advisors" Are Split.

Anifah Aman is not the only Minister who is unhappy.  (By the way, there are FOUR State EXCO members in a particular State who are ready to 'jump ship'. I will not entertain any private email or smses asking who or which state, sorry folks.) There is serious dissension within the ranks.

As I predicted (it is no rocket science) Anifah finds it increasingly difficult to converse with foreign missions and foreign diplomats whenever they bring up the 1MDB and other MO1 related issues. And Anifah has been obliged to 'tolerate' China.

The Ministers are split in their support for MO1.  Talk is MOI has complained more than once that not all Ministers are with him to fend off Dr Mahathir's attacks.   Which is true because not all Ministers attack Tun Dr Mahathir. Many remain quiet. Their feeling is, "Duit dia bantai, lepas tu suruh kita defend pula."

Even among the Advisors around MOI  they are split. Not all of them support MOI. Talk is that one Se·ño·ra who publicly supports MOI says many (but true) things about him in private.  "  .  .. di belakang kata macam-macam".  So there is plenty of hypocrisy going on.  Are we surprised?

And Sarawak under the new Chief Minister Abang Jo is pulling even farther away from MOI.  Sarawak is reiterating that they will work "with the sitting Prime Minister".  Their loyalty is NOT to MOI.  The 31 parliamentary seats in Sarawak will support whoever is PM. 

And if Shafie Apdal wins in Sabah, then Sarawak is prepared to follow 'Sabah's lead' in dealing with Putrajaya.  Sarawak has made it plain that they do not want UMNO in Sarawak. Sabah also does not want UMNO. Together Sarawak and Sabah will work to 'send UMNO back' to Semenanjung.

On the ground level, the sentiment among the people in Sarawak is increasingly against UMNO / BN (from the Semenanjung).    This is no great secret.

Lets see what the cat drags onto the lawn tomorrow.


UMNO Elections

The UMNO Elections are long overdue. They should have been held yesterday. All eyes now are on one position only - the deputy president. Since Muhyiddin was fired and thrown out of the party there has been great speculation who shall be the deputy party president.

Not only has the deputy president been kicked out but another Vice President Shafie Apdal has also left UMNO. Leaving behind Hishamuddin and Zahid Hamidi as the two incumbent VPs.  

Both Zahid Hamidi and Hishamuddin Hussein will (or rather they must) vie for the vacant deputy president's post.

The money says if Hishamuddin Hussein becomes Deputy President, then of a certainty KJ's career in UMNO will be substantially impeded.  KJ knows this as well.  So KJ has no choice but to also aim for the Deputy President's post. 

Observers note that KJ has lately been appearing wearing his Reserves military uniform - perhaps sending a strong signal to Hishamuddin Hussein the Minister of Defense that KJ too can tie his boot laces.

So Zahid, Hisham and KJ will be vying for the Deputy President's position in UMNO.

No one seems to favour Zahid Hamidi as the Deputy President, deputy PM or as PM. Zahid can be helped here but other than telling him to stop showing his fist, his advisors are not helping him at all.  I think that UN speech in English was sabotage.

If Zahid had spoken in Malay at the UN,  even I would have voted for Zahid. Zahid would have come out as a Malay and Malaysian champion. It was a fantastic opportunity lost.  Bila lagi nak berbahasa Melayu brader? (Dulu masa mamak tak reti cakap Melayu, depa kutuk mamak tak suka Melayu. Sekarang mamak fasih cakap Melayu, depa kutuk mamak nak jadi Melayu pula. Kay se-paata) 

Coming back to UMNO, there is therefore a serious vacancy for the three Vice Presidents positions as well. 

Talk is the front runner for VP is none other than Ismail Sabri. Tokpa or Mustapa Mohamed is also in the running they say. The other person hoping to be VP is Mahadzir Khalid.  And Sabah UMNO wants a VP slot as replacement for Shafie Apdal. If Sabah UMNO does not get a VP slot, they say you can shut down UMNO in Sabah.

As the stomach churns.  

Coup de etats are usually executed by colonels, not generals.

Robert Fisk, the eminent Middle East war correspondent for Britain's 'The Independent' newspaper feels that the failed coup against Erdogan in Turkey just did not succeed. Meaning another one is  'in the offing'.  Because the circumstances that precipitated the coup have not changed. In fact the situation in Turkey has perhaps become worse.

Anyway, there are two types of coups. 

A coup de etat (ku-di-ta) is usually executed by one or more men leading another group of men to physically overthrow the incumbent ruler or government. It is always an unconstitutional and illegal process. Dont ever get involved in one ok.

Another coup de etat is sometimes executed by an incumbent leader or government to prevent another new, legally appointed leader or government from taking over the reins of power.  Dont ever get involved in one ok.

Coup de etats almost always involve  the military.  Though in reality some wives have been known to hijack the "reins" of power and "reign" like kings (or queens). Examples would be Jiang Qing (Chairman Mao's wife), Eva Peron, wife of Argentine president Juan Peron  and 'Bad Hair Do'. 

Very often 'military' coup de etats involve military 'colonels'. There is a simple reason for this. The colonels are the guys who actually command the regiments and battalions which have the men, machine guns, tanks and equipment to execute a coup de etat.  Meaning it is the colonels ie the battalion and regimental commanders who can give the orders for the troops to move.

I have another explanation why it is usually colonels who undertake coup de etats. Colonels are usually younger men, more fit with slimmer waistlines - compared to say army generals who are usually older men. So if the coup de etat  starts to go wrong they must be fit enough to run for their lives ! !  This is a logical deduction - I am just trying to be a Holmes here - who was a fictional character.   

In Malaysia throughout 60 years of our independence our Army and Armed Forces have developed a robust and unshakeable tradition of being fully professional and apolitical.    Also there has never been any situation where the Armed Forces have even contemplated stepping out of their barracks during peacetime.

In the modern era with Twitter, Facebook, WhatsApp and what not the "window of opportunity" to  execute a coup has shrunken significantly.

The coup de etat against Erdogan failed because Erdogan and his supporters took to Twitter, Facebook, WhatsApp and the Alternative Media to ask their supporters to pour out into the streets - which they did. Within hours of the coup, hundreds of thousands of Erdogan's supporters jammed the roads in Turkey's main cities, especially Ankara.

This rousing of the Erdogan supporters caught the coup plotters by surprise. If the coup does not succeed within a few hours, then it will not succeed.   My prediction is if there is another coup de etat in Turkey (as hinted by Robert Fisk) this time they may also prioritise shutting down the full spectrum of radio and electronic communications in Turkey.  I believe Erdogan may also suffer a worse fate. The guy is corrupted as hell.

If a coup is planned over an unexpected election result, again the window of opportunity to execute the coup will last maybe seven or eight hours at the most - ie when the poll results are still being announced. If they wait for the next day, it will be too late.

So in any coup situation (in Turkey for example) the people to watch (ie the colonels) must be watched closely during the "window of opportunity" of   7  to 12 hours. 

Coup de etats have absolutely no place in a democratic society. Whether to overthrow an incumbent government or to preserve the incumbent government it  is simply too Jurassic. 

It is Stone Age behaviour. Tidak bertamaddun, tidak beradab. But so is RUU355.

The best advice is never take part in a coup.    There are always consequences.