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Wednesday, December 13, 2017

The Strength Of The Pakatan Harapan

Last nite I was hosted for dinner and an interesting discussion by 11 of my seniors from the Anglo Chinese School in Ipoh. These were folks who had completed their Form Five in 1958, 1963 and so on. At that time there was no SPM or MCE. They called it the School Certificate.  Thank you to my Elders.

One of the questions they asked me was 'How strong is the Pakatan Harapan?' 

 If you have watched the latest remake of Jungle Book (the animation) the wolves repeat their oath, 'The strength of the wolf is the pack and the strength of the pack is the wolf.'

The second part of this statement  "the strength of the pack is the wolf"  seems to apply to the Pakatan Harapan. The strength of the PH lies in two parts. The first is the individual strengths of the component parties namely the Parti Pribumi Bersatu, the DAP, Parti Amanah and the PKR. 

No matter whether it rains or shines, each one of these components have their undying supporters and voters which will translate to votes and seats to be won.

The second part of the Pakatan Harapan's strength 9which is a bonus) is Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed.   Dr Mahathir provides the focus and the glue to reach Putrajaya. 

Here is some info about the two previous elections. 

                                                   BN                                                                   Pakatan

2008                                  140 seats, 51%                                                 82 seats, 48%

2013                                  133 seats (-7)                                                     89 seats (+7)
Popular vote                   5,237,699                                                            5,623,984
%                                        47.4 % (-4%)                                                     51.0% (+3%)

Well,  since Tan Sri Muhyiddin, Mukriz and a few other leaders are no more in the BN, the BN's seat count is even less.

There are 222 Parliamentary seats, so you need 111 + 1 = 112 seats to form the federal government. 

165 Parliamentary seats are on the Peninsula and 57 are in Sarawak and Sabah.
The Pakatan Harapan need only win 20 more seats to topple the BN.

Talk is that DAP will be contesting 40 Parliamentary seats in the Peninsula.
Parti Bersatu will be contesting 55 seats.
The PKR will be contesting 50 seats in the Peninsula. 
Parti Amanah may contest  20 seats 

Both DAP (and the PKR) will contest some Parliamentary seats in Sabah and Sarawak.

The DAP holds 31 Parliamentary seats in the Peninsula, 5 seats in Sarawak and 2 more in Sabah (total of 38). This means the DAP is contesting an extra NINE seats in the Peninsula. The DAP may also contest more than the SEVEN seats they already have in Sarawak and Sabah.

Since time is short and resources are limited some observers suggest that Pakatan deploy its resources carefully for maximum effect.
It is suggested that Mukriz  Mahathir focus extra efforts to win all the Parliamentary and State seats in Kedah for the Pakatan.

Similarly Tan Sri Muhyiddin should focus extra efforts on securing Johor.

Tun Dr Mahathir has been doing a great job among the  Felda areas  and also as chief campaigner in other constituencies throughout the Peninsula. 

Parti Amanah seems to be strongest in Kelantan and has good potential to rout PAS and UMNO from some of the seats.  Husam in Kelantan and his Amanah cohorts should focus heavily on Kelantan.

As the incumbent State government in Selangor, PKR should work extra hard to win even more Parliamentary and State seats in Selangor for  Pakatan candidates.

The same applies for the DAP in Penang.

There are some internal issues in the PKR.   The party has three power centres namely the Anwar Ibrahim family, Azmin and his Selangor group and finally  Rafizi Ramli and his technical boys.  However the ground support for the PKR is still intact and does not seem to have any adverse effect on the party's popularity.

The Pakatan need only win an extra 20 Parliamentary seats to defeat the BN.

Lets say Parti Bersatu wins a minimum 10 seats. 
DAP wins THREE extra seats
PKR wins THREE extra seats. 
Amanah wins FOUR seats. 
Its game over for the BN.

We are not including Parti Warisan in Sabah.  
Or the Pakatan Harapan's   Dayak friends in Sarawak.

Its Game Over for the BN. 

Dewa-raja dan daulat-derhaka; peranannya dalam politik raja-raja Melayu. Oleh Wan Mohd Shahrir

This is a very short and powerful piece of writing by my good friend Wan Mohd Shahrir who hails from Pahang. Wan is also the Ketua Perhubungan of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia in Pahang.  He is a lawyer by training and is an avid reader and student of world history.

Here is his picture :

Wan is not a 'fist' guy at all

Saya pernah menulis artikel 'Melaka sebagai thalassocracy'. Dalam artikel itu saya menyentuh konsep dewa-raja ketika zaman Hindu dan daulat-derhaka pada zaman Islam dalam politik raja-raja Melayu. 

Raja merupakan penjelmaan dewa jika mengikut Weltanschauung Melayu ketika era Hindu. 

Theology ini hanya sekadar alat politik untuk mengawal agar pemberontakkan tidak berlaku dikalangan rakyat biasa.

Dan menjadi tugasan pembabad dan perawi istana mengaitkan raja-raja dengan unsur-unsur yang kudus dan suci. 

Setelah kedatangan Islam, konsep dewa raja ini diubah bernafas Islam. Turki Usmaniyah merupakan al-ghazi ketika itu dan menjadi tauladan kepada dunia Islam. 

Bermula hanya sebagai bey (commander) kepada Amir, Usmaniyah berkembang menjadi empayar. 

Para saujana Islam menulis tentang 'daulah Usmaniyah' atau "Usman's right to rule".

Maka pembabad  kesultanan yang sudah Islam mengaitkan daulah itu dengan daulat, berintipatikan lebih kepada divinity  dari sovereignity, persis seperti era dewa raja. 

Raja masih mempunyai 'daulat' dan jika derhaka, maka seseorang itu akan ditimpa petaka.

Raja Melayu moden sudah dimeterai bukan dengan daulat kerana manusia moden memahami tiada semua itu. 

Maka kita paterikan mereka dengan perlindungan perlembagaan.

Tidak seperti "divine right", kuasa seperti ini tertakluk kepada 'general will'. 

Selama mana rakyat masih suka.

My comments :  Wow. Short and power packed.  

My view is like this. I like to repeat what has already been said and agreed upon. With some digression here and there.  

So many people like the judges, the politicians, the Bar Council, the academics have said that the Federal Constitution is supreme. Fine.  

The Federal Constitution is just a piece of paper with words written on it. 

It can be amended by Parliament at any time.  

And Parliament has amended the Constitution many times before.

If 2/3 of MPs vote for an amendment then the Federal Constitution can be added to, shortened, expanded and maybe even abolished altogether. 

It is really up to Parliament to decide on the Federal Constitution.  So the Parliament is more supreme.

There is one more level.  Since the Members of Parliament are elected by the people, ultimately it is the people who are supreme.   The people will decide what type of Parliament and what type of Constitution they want. 

It really goes without even having to say it :  "Selama mana rakyat masih suka".

However there may be a very, very small clique of folks who may have issues fully agreeing with these facts.  

Reading history may help to understand things better.