Many people are not aware that in the last elections, the Barisan Nasional (mostly UMNO) has won 31 Parliamentary seats in rural areas with razor thin majorities. These are the "marginal seats". There are another 59 State seats (DUN) which were also won by the BN with slim majorities.
Hence Rafizi Ramli's calculation that a 2% swing in the Malay vote alone can mean that the BN/UMNO can lose these 31 Parliamentary and 59 State seats.
There is however another factor. In many of these seats, the number of Indian voters far outnumbers the slim majorities by which the BN won those marginal seats. Here are some numbers. My comments in blue.
Kerjasama antara Pakatan Harapan dan HINDRAF akan tumbangkan BN
1. Parlimen – Bagan Datoh (2013)
Majoriti - 2,108 (UMNO Zahid Hamidi)
Undi India – 9,423
OSTB : This is Zahid Hamidi's seat. The number of Indian voters is 4.5 times Zahid Hamidi's slim majority of 2,108. If just 1054 Indians switch over, Zahid Hamidi is history.
2. Parlimen – Bukit Gantang (2013)
Majoriti – 986
Undi India – 6,978
OSTB : In Bukit Gantang, the Indian voters are SEVEN TIMES more than the thin margin of 986 votes. If only 493 Indians switch their votes, the BN will lose Bukit Gantang.
3. Parlimen - Teluk Intan (2013)
Majoriti - 238
Undi India – 11,491
OSTB : Indian voters are 48 TIMES more than the razor thin majority of 238 votes. If only 119 Indians switch over, the BN will lose Teluk Intan too.
4. Parlimen – Labis (2013)
Majority - 353
Undi India – 5,698
(OSTB : Woi, siapa MP Labis ah? Itu Cina MCA kah? Indian voters are 16 TIMES more than the slim majority of 353 votes. Only 178 Indians need to swing away for the BN to lose Labis as well.
5. Parliament – Tebrau (2013)
Majority – 1767
Undi India – 5,818
(OSTB : Indian voters are THREE TIMES more than the 1767 majority. If only 884 Indians switch votes, the BN will lose Tebrau also.)
6. Parlimen – Pulai (2013)
Majoriti – 3226
Undi India – 11,090
(OSTB : Indians are 3.4 TIMES the slim majority of 3226 votes. 1613 Indians can send the BN packing in Pulai as well.)
7. Parlimen – Jerai (2013)
Majoriti – 1,196
Undi India – 4,688
(OSTB : Indian voters are almost FOUR TIMES the winning margin of 1196 votes. Only 598 Indians need to switch votes and the BN will lose Parlimen Jerai as well.)
8. Parlimen – Merbok (2013)
Majority – 4,122
Undi India – 15,033
(OSTB : This is my favorite. Indian voters are 3.64 times the slim margin of 4,122 votes. If 2061 Indians switch votes, the BN will lose Merbok as well.)
9. Parlimen – Kulim Bandar Baru
Majoriti - 1891
Undi India – 7,857
(OSTB : Indians are FOUR TIMES the winning margin of 1891 votes. If 946 Indians switch votes, ten the BN will lose Kulim Bandar Baru too.)
Di atas adalah contoh bagaimana gabungan antara PH dan HINDRAF boleh mengalahkan BN.
My comments : The question is "Can Mr P Waythamoorthy and his Hindraf boys swing the Indian vote?"
Lets look at some facts and real numbers.
During the 12th GE (GE12 in 2008) – which was held AFTER that famous Hindraf demonstration -
- Total Indian votes in GE12 was 660,340 votes.
- Indian votes for Pakatan Rakyat was 470,954 (71.32%)
- Indian votes for BN was 189,385 (28.68%)
Do take note that 2008 was the great watershed year in Malaysian politics when the BN (under Slumberjack) first lost the 2/3 majority in Parliament. This was also due in some part to the Hindraf campaigning AGAINST the BN in 2008.
Then at the 13th General Elections (GE13) things switched around. Najib signed a pact with the Hindraf and Waythamoorthy. The BN would provide hundreds of millions of Ringgit for Indian development and put Waythamoorthy in charge of the Indian programs.
In return the Hindraf would campaign for the BN, which Hindraf and Mr Waythamoorthy did quite successfully. The result was that in the GE13 in 2013, while the BN actually lost more votes, when they lost the popular vote and when the BN lost even more Parliamentary seats, the ONLY consolation for the BN was that the Indian vote had swung back to the BN.
Here are the numbers. For GE13 in 2013 :
- Total Indian votes in GE13 859,993 votes.
- Indian votes for BN – 425,165 (49.44%)
- India votes for the Pakatan Rakyat – 434,828 (50.56%)
Note carefully :
- In GE12 the Indian vote for the BN was 189,000 (Hindraf anti BN)
- In GE13 the Indian vote for the BN was 425,000 (Hindraf pro BN)
Hindraf had made the Indian vote increase by 2.24 TIMES from GE12 to GE13.
And this was at a time when the BN lost the popular vote, lost more seats in Parliament and almost lost the GE13.
AND THE MIC WAS ONLY ABLE TO WIN FOUR PARLIAMENTARY SEATS !!!
Clearly Hindraf's campaigning and the Indian vote had helped to save the BN's backside.
And now for the GE14 the HINDRAF, along with PPBM is very active in the States and 'luar bandar' areas.
The Hindraf has launched their 'Zero Votes For BN' campaign (“Undi Sifar Untuk BN”) which is gaining traction in the rural areas, especially among the Indians.
Hindraf is also working on the ground with PPBM, Amanah, PKR and the DAP.
Hindraf launched the "Zero Votes for BN" campaign in Seremban recently which saw a good Indian turnout in excess of 3,500 people. (This is a huge number for Indians). Also in attendance was DAP's P Ramasamy, Deputy Chief Minister of Penang.
Hindraf is also cooperating closely with PPBM which will be contesting many of those marginal UMNO/BN seats in the rural or "luar bandar" areas in Johor, Kedah, Perak and other such seats.
The Gabungah between the Hindraf and the PPBM can and will break the UMNO/BN hold in those marginal seats.